Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 58.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 88.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 71.4%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Toews
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Toews
Kuraly
Last 6: Toews 2-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Toews
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Toews
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
52.6% (464)
+10.0%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
100.0% (1)
-40.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
46.5% (155)
+0.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Toews
Kuraly
Home
61.1% (455)
55.9% (322)
Away
62.1% (448)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Toews
Kuraly
P1
59.7%
55.9%
P2
66.7%
46.7%
P3
58.4%
50.7%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |