Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Kuraly 49.2% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 55.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
50.8% (370)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
44.1% (127)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 41.8% vs right-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
52.6% (489)
52.8% (269)
Away
49.1% (495)
44.7% (228)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
50.3%
53.2%
P2
52.6%
45.8%
P3
49.2%
47.9%
Final 5 min
55.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |