Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Monahan 52.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 58.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Evans
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Evans
Monahan
Last 9: Evans 3-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Evans
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Evans
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
53.0% (874)
+2.6%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
54.7% (161)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
47.5% (101)
+7.7%
On power play, Evans has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
Evans
Monahan
Home
54.7% (402)
53.8% (558)
Away
56.9% (341)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Evans
Monahan
P1
57.9%
49.5%
P2
55.2%
54.8%
P3
53.6%
52.8%
OT
66.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |