Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Monahan 52.5% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 76.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Tavares
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Tavares
Monahan
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
53.0% (874)
+4.7%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
54.7% (161)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
47.5% (101)
+4.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Tavares
Monahan
Home
57.4% (636)
53.8% (558)
Away
57.1% (587)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Tavares
Monahan
P1
57.1%
49.5%
P2
57.0%
54.8%
P3
57.6%
52.8%
OT
57.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
56.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | OT | 01:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |