Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Monahan wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Aho 50.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 62.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 61.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 50.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Monahan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Monahan
Aho
Last 10: Monahan 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Monahan
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
2
Monahan
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
50.5% (878)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
53.5% (144)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
44.3% (61)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Monahan shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Monahan
Aho
Home
53.8% (558)
53.8% (571)
Away
51.7% (578)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Monahan
Aho
P1
49.5%
49.0%
P2
54.8%
51.7%
P3
52.8%
50.3%
OT
61.9%
58.8%
Final 5 min
53.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |