Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Zegras 41.5% (+13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 56.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 76.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 70.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Monahan
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Monahan
Zegras
Last 9: Monahan 5-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
0
Monahan
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
4
Monahan
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (641)
39.4% (510)
+12.1%
Power Play
62.8% (129)
47.1% (34)
+15.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Monahan shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Monahan
Zegras
Home
53.9% (362)
42.3% (272)
Away
52.5% (417)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Monahan
Zegras
P1
48.0%
37.6%
P2
57.0%
41.5%
P3
54.1%
40.8%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.0%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
53.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2022 | 3 | 01:42 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 03:30 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |