Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Johnston 50.1% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 63.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 72.8%
Neutral zone
Johnston 58.0%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Monahan
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Monahan
Johnston
Last 10: Monahan 5-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Monahan
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
1
Monahan
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
50.7% (552)
+6.4%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
61.5% (13)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
43.5% (69)
+1.1%
On power play, Johnston has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Monahan shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Monahan
Johnston
Home
55.3% (644)
50.3% (342)
Away
54.5% (628)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Monahan
Johnston
P1
53.9%
54.4%
P2
55.3%
47.2%
P3
54.4%
49.4%
OT
76.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
54.9%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:22 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |