Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Gourde 46.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 72.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 56.8%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Monahan
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Monahan
Gourde
Last 6: Monahan 2-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Monahan
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Monahan
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
47.2% (687)
+5.8%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
45.0% (20)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
33.0% (88)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Monahan shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Monahan
Gourde
Home
53.8% (558)
44.4% (356)
Away
51.7% (578)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Monahan
Gourde
P1
49.5%
42.2%
P2
54.8%
50.0%
P3
52.8%
44.5%
OT
61.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |