Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Gourde 48.2% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 20-16 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 76.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 50.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.1%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Monahan
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
16
(36 meetings)
20
16
Monahan
Gourde
Last 10: Monahan 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
10
4
Monahan
Gourde
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
5
7
Monahan
Gourde
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Monahan
Gourde
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,407)
48.4% (4,987)
+2.7%
Power Play
53.6% (2,582)
57.4% (376)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (772)
40.0% (555)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Monahan shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
Monahan
Gourde
Home
52.3% (7,387)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
50.2% (7,374)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Monahan
Gourde
P1
51.0%
49.8%
P2
51.7%
47.5%
P3
51.0%
47.5%
OT
53.5%
37.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 13:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 05:22 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 19:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |