Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Barron wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 46.8% vs Aho 50.5% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 95.2%
Defensive zone
Barron 57.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 81.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Barron
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Barron
Aho
Last 8: Barron 6-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Barron
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
5
0
Barron
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barron
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (381)
50.5% (878)
-1.9%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
53.5% (144)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (187)
44.3% (61)
-2.6%
On power play, Aho has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barron is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Barron shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Barron
Aho
Home
44.4% (306)
53.8% (571)
Away
48.3% (265)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Barron
Aho
P1
45.5%
49.0%
P2
49.8%
51.7%
P3
43.1%
50.3%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.3%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
46.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |