Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 19 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Aho 51.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 31-11 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 91.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 95.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 89.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 91.4%
91.4%
8.6%
Cates
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
31
(42 meetings)
11
31
Cates
Aho
Last 10: Cates 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
15
Cates
Aho
19 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Cates
Aho
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
12
Cates
Aho
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
50.2% (6,646)
-6.1%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
58.9% (1,310)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
46.5% (465)
-11.6%
On power play, Aho has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Cates
Aho
Home
43.9% (1,708)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Cates
Aho
P1
44.5%
51.1%
P2
43.7%
52.1%
P3
41.2%
50.8%
OT
29.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
41.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | OT | 00:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:15 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 00:58 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |