Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carrick wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 54.2% vs Aho 50.5% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 81.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 82.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Carrick
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carrick
Aho
Last 5: Carrick 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
1
Carrick
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Carrick
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (470)
50.5% (878)
+5.0%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
53.5% (144)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (58)
44.3% (61)
+5.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Carrick shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Carrick
Aho
Home
58.6% (261)
53.8% (571)
Away
51.5% (270)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Carrick
Aho
P1
55.9%
49.0%
P2
53.5%
51.7%
P3
55.6%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |