Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 49.6%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Kozak 49.7% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 92.0%
Defensive zone
Kozak 65.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 68.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
Aho
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Aho
Kozak
Last 6: Aho 5-1 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
1
Aho
Kozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
49.3% (294)
+1.2%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
60.0% (5)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
50.0% (40)
-5.7%
On power play, Kozak has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Aho shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Aho
Kozak
Home
53.8% (571)
45.5% (145)
Away
46.9% (512)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Aho
Kozak
P1
49.0%
53.4%
P2
51.7%
50.0%
P3
50.3%
44.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |