Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (40.2% vs 39.8%). Buchnevich wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 43.3% vs Wright 41.4% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 60.4%
Defensive zone
Wright 65.5%
Neutral zone
Wright 64.0%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Buchnevich
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Buchnevich
Wright
Last 5: Buchnevich 1-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Buchnevich
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Buchnevich
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
0
1
Buchnevich
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
40.5% (190)
39.7% (461)
+0.8%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
41.0% (61)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
0.0% (1)
+30.0%
On penalty kill, Buchnevich has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Buchnevich shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Wright
Home
40.7% (118)
39.5% (286)
Away
39.6% (96)
40.1% (237)
By Period
Buchnevich
Wright
P1
42.3%
40.2%
P2
37.5%
36.7%
P3
40.3%
42.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Shane Wright |