Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horcoff 49.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 74.0%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 78.1%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 75.2%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Horcoff
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Horcoff
Hertl
Last 5: Horcoff 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Horcoff
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Horcoff
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
0
Horcoff
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horcoff
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (3,133)
53.9% (8,303)
-3.3%
Power Play
51.4% (555)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (567)
46.3% (806)
-3.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Horcoff shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Horcoff
Hertl
Home
51.1% (2,199)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.0% (2,104)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Horcoff
Hertl
P1
48.2%
53.6%
P2
49.5%
54.2%
P3
50.9%
55.3%
OT
51.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 19:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |