Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Crosby 55.4% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 78.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 94.1%
Neutral zone
Lazar 67.4%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Lazar
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Lazar
Crosby
Last 6: Lazar 5-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Lazar
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
53.6% (1,008)
+9.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
65.0% (246)
-65.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
60.0% (15)
-3.7%
On power play, Crosby has a +65.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. Crosby is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (373).
Home / Away
Lazar
Crosby
Home
63.0% (135)
56.9% (675)
Away
59.3% (118)
54.7% (594)
By Period
Lazar
Crosby
P1
64.6%
55.6%
P2
60.0%
53.3%
P3
59.3%
58.7%
Final 5 min
67.2%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Crosby
62.0%▲
53.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |