Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.7% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Crosby 55.4% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 87.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 86.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 87.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Carlsson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Carlsson
Crosby
Last 10: Carlsson 2-8 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
3
Carlsson
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
4
Carlsson
Crosby
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
3
Carlsson
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (690)
53.6% (1,008)
-8.7%
Power Play
47.0% (83)
65.0% (246)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
60.0% (15)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Carlsson is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Carlsson shoots left. Crosby is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (896).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Crosby
Home
42.5% (428)
56.9% (675)
Away
45.5% (429)
54.7% (594)
By Period
Carlsson
Crosby
P1
45.1%
55.6%
P2
39.0%
53.3%
P3
48.5%
58.7%
OT
41.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
38.4%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
36.0%▼
38.5%
44.0%
Crosby
62.0%▲
53.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |