Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Crosby 55.1% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 92.7%
Defensive zone
Crosby 69.9%
Neutral zone
Crosby 85.1%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 86.2%
13.8%
86.2%
Barzal
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Barzal
Crosby
Last 7: Barzal 5-2 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
0
Barzal
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Barzal
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
53.3% (1,025)
-12.4%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
64.7% (249)
-30.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
60.0% (15)
-31.4%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Crosby is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Barzal
Crosby
Home
39.2% (250)
56.9% (675)
Away
41.3% (264)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Barzal
Crosby
P1
46.3%
55.1%
P2
36.7%
53.1%
P3
38.5%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
41.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:05 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:20 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |