Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 25 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Crosby 53.5% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 30-18 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 62.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Paul
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
30
(48 meetings)
18
30
Paul
Crosby
Last 10: Paul 6-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
5
20
Paul
Crosby
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
10
2
Paul
Crosby
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
3
8
Paul
Crosby
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
52.8% (18,031)
-0.2%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
57.4% (4,741)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
47.0% (766)
-0.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,886).
Home / Away
Paul
Crosby
Home
52.8% (2,445)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Paul
Crosby
P1
53.8%
53.6%
P2
51.0%
53.8%
P3
52.2%
53.3%
OT
50.0%
49.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |