Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 55.4% vs Thompson 45.2% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 91.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 75.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 83.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 87.6%
87.6%
12.4%
Stamkos
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Stamkos
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (368)
44.6% (661)
+12.5%
Power Play
55.2% (96)
48.4% (95)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
33.3% (33)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Stamkos shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Thompson
Home
53.9% (230)
45.7% (411)
Away
59.0% (244)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Stamkos
Thompson
P1
56.7%
47.7%
P2
54.1%
45.7%
P3
59.2%
40.5%
OT
62.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
59.3%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |