Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 51.1% vs Connolly 47.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 53.0%
Defensive zone
Connolly 56.0%
Neutral zone
Connolly 52.4%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Stamkos
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Stamkos
Connolly
Last 10: Stamkos 5-5 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
7
Stamkos
Connolly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Stamkos
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
7
2
Stamkos
Connolly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (9,825)
47.4% (1,307)
+3.1%
Power Play
55.2% (1,729)
50.2% (251)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (827)
41.9% (186)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Stamkos shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Connolly
Home
52.8% (6,270)
48.5% (870)
Away
49.3% (6,137)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Stamkos
Connolly
P1
49.2%
47.4%
P2
52.7%
47.7%
P3
50.9%
47.0%
OT
54.3%
37.8%
Final 5 min
52.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2012 | 3 | 04:53 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 09:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 1 | 18:19 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 1 | 05:54 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 3 | 09:01 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 1 | 05:24 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 2 | 13:44 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 2 | 11:14 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 1 | 19:22 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 8, 2011 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 8, 2011 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2010 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2010 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |