Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Thompson 45.2% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.9%
Defensive zone
Thompson 65.4%
Neutral zone
Thompson 66.8%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
McDavid
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Thompson
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
McDavid
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
McDavid
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
44.6% (661)
+3.1%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
48.4% (95)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
33.3% (33)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thompson
Home
50.0% (412)
45.7% (411)
Away
45.7% (394)
43.4% (378)
By Period
McDavid
Thompson
P1
48.0%
47.7%
P2
48.5%
45.7%
P3
47.1%
40.5%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |