Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Thompson 45.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 54.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 71.3%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 65.0%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Rodrigues
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Thompson
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
0
Rodrigues
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
44.6% (661)
+3.2%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
48.4% (95)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
33.3% (33)
+3.5%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Rodrigues shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Thompson
Home
47.9% (445)
45.7% (411)
Away
45.4% (346)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Rodrigues
Thompson
P1
48.3%
47.7%
P2
47.0%
45.7%
P3
44.8%
40.5%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:37 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |