Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Vanek wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vanek 41.7% vs Novak 43.0% (-4.9%)
Offensive zone
Vanek 60.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 61.1%
Neutral zone
Vanek 50.8%
Result
Thomas Vanek favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Vanek
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vanek
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
37.7% (146)
41.9% (1,565)
-4.2%
Power Play
36.1% (61)
51.5% (134)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.0% (2)
+10.0%
On power play, Novak has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Vanek is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (145).
Vanek shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Vanek
Novak
Home
39.6% (111)
45.1% (831)
Away
35.6% (101)
40.2% (870)
By Period
Vanek
Novak
P1
32.1%
43.7%
P2
40.9%
42.9%
P3
40.0%
41.1%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
38.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vanek
28.0%▼
38.5%
37.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
42.6%