Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 78.3%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 79.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 75.3%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Fantilli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Fantilli
Hertl
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Fantilli
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Fantilli
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Fantilli
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
58.7% (858)
-9.3%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
55.8% (285)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fantilli is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Fantilli shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Hertl
Home
50.7% (503)
60.1% (599)
Away
48.5% (501)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Fantilli
Hertl
P1
47.0%
52.4%
P2
52.5%
63.9%
P3
49.7%
58.5%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |