Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudette wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 49.7% vs Hertl 57.4% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudette 53.6%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 87.3%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 73.4%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Gaudette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Gaudette
Hertl
Last 6: Gaudette 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Gaudette
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
1
0
Gaudette
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Gaudette
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (202)
58.5% (845)
-10.5%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
56.2% (281)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaudette is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Gaudette shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Hertl
Home
48.4% (91)
60.0% (582)
Away
50.3% (149)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Gaudette
Hertl
P1
48.8%
52.1%
P2
51.9%
63.6%
P3
48.1%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.5%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
50.0%▲
48.5%
49.6%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |