Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 48.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-11 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarnkrok 88.9%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 80.5%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 79.8%
Result
Calle Jarnkrok favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
20
(31 meetings)
11
20
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Last 10: Jarnkrok 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
8
Jarnkrok
Hertl
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
10
Jarnkrok
Hertl
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
3
2
Jarnkrok
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (3,357)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.7%
Power Play
51.9% (258)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (643)
46.3% (806)
-5.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jarnkrok is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,987).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Hertl
Home
50.5% (2,262)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
45.3% (1,996)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Hertl
P1
47.7%
53.6%
P2
48.0%
54.2%
P3
48.8%
55.3%
OT
40.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 09:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 08:16 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:36 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |