Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorsky 47.2% vs Hertl 57.4% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Dvorsky
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorsky
Hertl
Last 5: Dvorsky 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorsky
2
0
Dvorsky
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorsky
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorsky
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (543)
58.5% (845)
-11.2%
Power Play
42.9% (77)
56.2% (281)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorsky is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Dvorsky shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Dvorsky
Hertl
Home
47.3% (298)
60.0% (582)
Away
46.3% (324)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Dvorsky
Hertl
P1
48.4%
52.1%
P2
45.4%
63.6%
P3
46.4%
58.8%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorsky
38.0%▼
44.5%
46.8%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Dalibor Dvorsky |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |