Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Svechkov wins 42.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 43.2% vs Hertl 57.4% (-16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 95.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 78.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 93.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 87.2%
12.8%
87.2%
Svechkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Hertl
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Svechkov
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
0
Svechkov
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (472)
58.5% (845)
-16.8%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
56.2% (281)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Svechkov is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (312).
Svechkov shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Hertl
Home
39.7% (247)
60.0% (582)
Away
44.0% (234)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Svechkov
Hertl
P1
36.1%
52.1%
P2
44.5%
63.6%
P3
44.1%
58.8%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.0%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
28.0%▼
38.5%
41.8%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |