Frederick Gaudreau vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Gaudreau wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Hertl 57.4% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 72.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 95.9%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 89.0%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Gaudreau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Gaudreau
Hertl
Last 10: Gaudreau 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
9
Gaudreau
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
3
0
Gaudreau
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
58.5% (845)
-13.6%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
56.2% (281)
-24.4%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
62.9% (35)
-24.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Gaudreau shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Hertl
Home
42.6% (277)
60.0% (582)
Away
43.1% (288)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Gaudreau
Hertl
P1
44.1%
52.1%
P2
44.7%
63.6%
P3
39.5%
58.8%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:30 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |