Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 93.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 94.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 94.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 94.0%
94.0%
6.0%
Carlsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Carlsson
Hertl
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Carlsson
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
7
Carlsson
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Carlsson
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
53.9% (8,303)
-13.0%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
59.2% (1,995)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
46.3% (806)
-11.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Carlsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hertl
Home
42.2% (1,051)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Carlsson
Hertl
P1
43.3%
53.6%
P2
36.2%
54.2%
P3
43.3%
55.3%
OT
40.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
39.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |