Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Jankowski leads 19-9 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 95.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 80.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 85.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 87.6%
12.4%
87.6%
Jankowski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
9
(28 meetings)
19
9
Jankowski
Hertl
Last 10: Jankowski 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Jankowski
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
5
2
Jankowski
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
9
2
Jankowski
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (3,490)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.4%
Power Play
53.7% (95)
59.2% (1,995)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (534)
46.3% (806)
-3.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jankowski is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,549).
Jankowski shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Hertl
Home
51.8% (1,961)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
49.1% (2,158)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Jankowski
Hertl
P1
49.8%
53.6%
P2
51.1%
54.2%
P3
50.3%
55.3%
OT
20.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
50.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 07:29 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 12:16 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 14:39 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 07:04 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 10:28 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |