Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Hertl 57.4% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 95.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 80.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 93.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 86.0%
14.0%
86.0%
Beniers
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Beniers
Hertl
Last 7: Beniers 6-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
0
Beniers
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
58.5% (845)
-10.2%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
56.2% (281)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Beniers is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (634).
Beniers shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Beniers
Hertl
Home
52.4% (460)
60.0% (582)
Away
45.1% (470)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Beniers
Hertl
P1
47.5%
52.1%
P2
50.6%
63.6%
P3
47.6%
58.8%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | OT | 04:42 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |