Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Byfield wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Byfield 45.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Byfield 96.4%
Defensive zone
Byfield 90.0%
Neutral zone
Byfield 94.5%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 93.9%
93.9%
6.1%
Byfield
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
20
(28 meetings)
8
20
Byfield
Hertl
Last 10: Byfield 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
9
Byfield
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
5
3
Byfield
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
8
Byfield
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Byfield
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (2,149)
53.9% (8,303)
-8.5%
Power Play
47.8% (113)
59.2% (1,995)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (230)
46.3% (806)
-8.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Byfield is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,656).
Byfield shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Byfield
Hertl
Home
45.3% (1,183)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.4% (1,309)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Byfield
Hertl
P1
45.2%
53.6%
P2
43.7%
54.2%
P3
45.9%
55.3%
OT
40.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
42.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Byfield
54.0%▼
57.0%
44.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 1 | 16:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 1 | 10:30 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |