Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 50.8%). Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 50.2% vs Hertl 50.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 56.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Carpenter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Carpenter
Hertl
Last 9: Carpenter 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Carpenter
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
4
1
Carpenter
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (314)
51.5% (891)
-3.1%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
54.8% (135)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
57.0% (79)
41.5% (130)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Carpenter shoots right. Hertl is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hertl
Home
55.8% (197)
52.6% (544)
Away
44.8% (201)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Carpenter
Hertl
P1
48.3%
49.4%
P2
47.8%
51.7%
P3
54.6%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.8%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |