Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Greene wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 43.9% vs Hertl 57.4% (-15.1%)
H2H factor
Greene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 97.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 69.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 86.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.9%
22.1%
77.9%
Greene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Greene
Hertl
Last 10: Greene 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
5
2
Greene
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
2
0
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (512)
58.5% (845)
-14.9%
Power Play
46.8% (62)
56.2% (281)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (167)
62.9% (35)
-22.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greene is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Greene shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Greene
Hertl
Home
47.4% (382)
60.0% (582)
Away
38.4% (359)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Greene
Hertl
P1
46.8%
52.1%
P2
37.6%
63.6%
P3
45.2%
58.8%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |