Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Hertl 57.4% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
O'Reilly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
Last 7: O'Reilly 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
O'Reilly
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
58.5% (845)
-2.8%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
56.2% (281)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Hertl
Home
55.5% (616)
60.0% (582)
Away
55.3% (617)
56.1% (579)
By Period
O'Reilly
Hertl
P1
58.1%
52.1%
P2
54.9%
63.6%
P3
53.9%
58.8%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |