Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 32-16 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 86.0%
Neutral zone
Carrick 62.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Carrick
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
32
(48 meetings)
16
32
Carrick
Hertl
Last 10: Carrick 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
16
Carrick
Hertl
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
13
6
Carrick
Hertl
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
10
Carrick
Hertl
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (2,544)
53.9% (8,303)
-1.7%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
59.2% (1,995)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (435)
46.3% (806)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Carrick shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Carrick
Hertl
Home
51.5% (1,477)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Carrick
Hertl
P1
51.8%
53.6%
P2
52.3%
54.2%
P3
52.6%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |