Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.5% vs Trocheck 56.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.2%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 65.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Hertl
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Hertl
Trocheck
Last 9: Hertl 5-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hertl
Trocheck
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
0
Hertl
Trocheck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
2
Hertl
Trocheck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (858)
58.0% (666)
+0.7%
Power Play
55.8% (285)
64.8% (165)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
43.4% (152)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Hertl shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Hertl
Trocheck
Home
60.1% (599)
55.3% (436)
Away
56.1% (579)
58.1% (547)
By Period
Hertl
Trocheck
P1
52.4%
56.4%
P2
63.9%
58.7%
P3
58.5%
55.5%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:07 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |