Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.1% vs Nosek 48.5% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 80.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nosek 60.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
McCarron
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McCarron
Nosek
Last 5: McCarron 0-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
McCarron
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
McCarron
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (697)
52.0% (102)
+0.8%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
100.0% (2)
-81.8%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (211)
29.0% (31)
+23.6%
On power play, Nosek has a +81.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
McCarron shoots right. Nosek is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
McCarron
Nosek
Home
52.8% (477)
52.0% (50)
Away
51.8% (442)
44.7% (85)
By Period
McCarron
Nosek
P1
56.2%
45.0%
P2
52.4%
42.0%
P3
48.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
43.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:25 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 13:50 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |