Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Novak 42.6% (+16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 91.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 93.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Novak
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
40.5% (405)
+17.2%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
45.5% (33)
+10.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
57.4% (636)
42.0% (212)
Away
57.1% (587)
39.8% (226)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
57.1%
41.7%
P2
57.0%
39.5%
P3
57.6%
42.1%
OT
57.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |