Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eklund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.0% vs Eklund 36.0% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 61.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 64.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Novak
Eklund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Novak
Eklund
Last 5: Novak 3-2 Eklund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
0
Novak
Eklund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eklund
0
1
Novak
Eklund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eklund
0
1
Novak
Eklund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Eklund
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (1,568)
30.7% (270)
+11.1%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
50.0% (22)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
15.4% (13)
+34.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +34.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eklund shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Novak shoots left. Eklund is 30.0% vs left-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
Novak
Eklund
Home
45.1% (831)
30.8% (169)
Away
40.2% (873)
32.4% (136)
By Period
Novak
Eklund
P1
43.7%
30.0%
P2
42.8%
28.3%
P3
41.1%
37.2%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.1%
25.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Eklund
30.0%▲
28.5%
31.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | William Eklund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | William Eklund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 01:18 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |