Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Zegras 41.3% (+15.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 89.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 90.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Nelson
Zegras
Last 6: Nelson 5-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
36.5% (156)
+14.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
40.7% (27)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
0.0% (3)
+51.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +51.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
52.5% (590)
38.9% (113)
Away
51.7% (619)
32.9% (73)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
50.5%
40.0%
P2
54.4%
38.1%
P3
51.4%
31.6%
OT
47.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
36.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |