Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Zegras 39.5% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 96.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Nelson
Zegras
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Zegras
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
4
Nelson
Zegras
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
39.0% (1,703)
+8.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
38.5% (148)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
25.0% (8)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
50.1% (5,878)
40.5% (908)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
48.7%
40.0%
P2
48.6%
38.6%
P3
47.7%
38.2%
OT
45.6%
31.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:38 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 02:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |