Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Poehling wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 48.0% vs Zegras 37.0% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 65.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 98.5%
Neutral zone
Poehling 95.8%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 97.0%
97.0%
3.0%
Poehling
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Poehling
Zegras
Last 7: Poehling 7-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
0
Poehling
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
4
0
Poehling
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (680)
33.0% (264)
+17.4%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
32.1% (56)
+26.2%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (219)
50.0% (2)
-11.2%
On power play, Poehling has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Poehling shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Poehling
Zegras
Home
47.4% (422)
35.3% (173)
Away
48.1% (489)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Poehling
Zegras
P1
53.3%
33.0%
P2
40.3%
35.7%
P3
50.0%
29.7%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 02:51 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |