Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 38.3% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.5% vs Toffoli 43.0% (-1.9%)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 56.5%
Defensive zone
Zegras 66.3%
Neutral zone
Toffoli 50.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Zegras
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (1,703)
41.2% (274)
-2.2%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
45.0% (40)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
26.3% (19)
-1.3%
On power play, Toffoli has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Zegras is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (605).
Zegras shoots left. Toffoli is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Zegras
Toffoli
Home
40.5% (908)
44.5% (155)
Away
37.3% (951)
37.6% (178)
By Period
Zegras
Toffoli
P1
40.0%
47.4%
P2
38.6%
39.8%
P3
38.2%
32.9%
OT
31.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.1%
33.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
40.8%