Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.5%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Hertl wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Bozak 53.4% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Bozak 51.6%
Defensive zone
Bozak 56.9%
Neutral zone
Bozak 51.7%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Hertl
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
16
(34 meetings)
18
16
Hertl
Bozak
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
4
Hertl
Bozak
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
7
8
Hertl
Bozak
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
3
4
Hertl
Bozak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (8,290)
53.7% (9,596)
+0.2%
Power Play
59.3% (1,991)
55.2% (1,990)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
48.0% (1,094)
-1.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Hertl shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Hertl
Bozak
Home
55.8% (5,365)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
52.9% (5,722)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Hertl
Bozak
P1
53.6%
53.2%
P2
54.1%
52.8%
P3
55.3%
54.5%
OT
46.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 13:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |