Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 39.9% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 92.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 81.2%
Neutral zone
Smith 86.8%
Result
Will Smith favored at 84.5%
84.5%
15.5%
Smith
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Smith
Karlsson
Last 5: Smith 0-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Smith
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Smith
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Smith
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
33.5% (194)
51.8% (7,849)
-18.3%
Power Play
48.1% (27)
54.8% (1,048)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
44.2% (1,109)
+5.8%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Smith is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Smith shoots right. Karlsson is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,455).
Home / Away
Smith
Karlsson
Home
33.6% (128)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
37.9% (95)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Smith
Karlsson
P1
37.1%
50.3%
P2
33.8%
51.3%
P3
33.9%
52.4%
OT
100.0%
44.9%
Final 5 min
34.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
36.0%▬
37.0%
35.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | William Karlsson |