Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Johnston 48.0% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 78.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 75.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Larkin
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
Johnston
Last 6: Larkin 5-1 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
47.3% (666)
+3.8%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.7% (69)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
51.4% (35)
-3.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnston
Home
51.7% (686)
47.5% (364)
Away
53.0% (658)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Larkin
Johnston
P1
52.5%
49.4%
P2
52.7%
46.9%
P3
51.4%
47.1%
OT
61.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |