Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Foligno wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.9% vs Johnston 48.0% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 71.7%
Defensive zone
Johnston 60.1%
Neutral zone
Johnston 66.7%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 71.7%
28.3%
71.7%
Foligno
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Foligno
Johnston
Last 5: Foligno 1-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
4
Foligno
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (291)
47.3% (666)
+2.2%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
50.7% (69)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
51.4% (35)
-4.2%
On power play, Foligno has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Foligno is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Foligno shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Foligno
Johnston
Home
48.9% (178)
47.5% (364)
Away
50.7% (209)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Foligno
Johnston
P1
43.0%
49.4%
P2
55.9%
46.9%
P3
50.0%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
51.5%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |